The Note Sent to KONDA Subscribers

Dear Subscribers,

We hereby submit this declaration to the subscribers of the KONDA Barometer Political and Social Survey Series, which will also be published on our website today on the basis of the authority and right granted to us by our subscribers pursuant to a special provision in the subscription agreement.

The survey which forms the basis of this declaration was conducted on May 6-7, 2023. Within the scope of the survey, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 3480 interviewees in their homes in 194 neighborhoods and villages of 120 districts of 35 provinces, including the central districts. Age and gender quotas were applied in the 18 surveys conducted in each neighborhood.

The survey reflects the political tendencies of the subjects representing the adult population above the age of 18 in Turkey (domestic electorate) on the days when the field survey was held.

The sample was selected through the stratification of the data on population and educational level of neighborhoods and villages based on the Address Based Population Registration System (ADNKS), and the neighborhood and village results of the previous General Elections. First, the settlement units were grouped as rural/urban/metropolitan, then the sample was determined based on 12 regions.

Provinces visited within the scope of the survey: Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bingöl, Bursa, Çanakkale, Denizli, Diyarbakır, Erzincan, Erzurum, Eskişehir, Gaziantep, Giresun, Hatay, Mersin, İstanbul, İzmir, Karaman, Kars, Kayseri, Kırklareli, Kocaeli, Konya, Malatya, Manisa, Sakarya, Samsun, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon, Şanlıurfa, Van.

The margin of error of the survey is +/- 1.7 at 95 percent confidence level and +/- 2.2 at 99 percent confidence level. Political preferences according to the last 4 surveys are as follows.

The proportional distribution of the swing voters (7.8 percent) and non-voters (2.2 percent) reveals the following series.

The findings of the research dated 6-7 May show that there is a possibility of the Presidential election going to the second round. However, if the trend of vote change in the last week continues, there is also a possibility that the election will result in favor of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round.

Considering our findings regarding the electoral alliances in the parliamentary elections, the proportional distribution of undecided voters (11.5 percent) and voters (2.2 percent) results as follows:

These findings show us that the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı), which has recently reached 43-44 percent of the votes, could not increase this rate of votes even more, but that the alliance that will reach the highest vote rate among the alliances will be the People's Alliance.

In this election, political parties run for the election with a wide variety of election, alliance and candidate list strategies. There are parties belonging to the same alliance that act together in all 87 constituencies; act separately in all; act separately in some, together in some; and enter separately in some but have candidates on each other's lists. Therefore, we think that the alliance vote measurement is a healthier measurement than that of the party vote. Nevertheless, according to our findings of 6-7 May, our party preference findings are as follows:

We would like to note three dynamics that bear the capacity of changing our findings of May 6-7 and affect the May 14 results:

  •  First, the effects of the developments since 6-7 May on political preferences.
  •  Secondly, strategic vote shifts that may occur in the Presidential election. Although it is not very likely that strategic vote shifts will be between "People's Alliance - Nation Alliance" or "Erdoğan - Kılıçdaroğlu", we see that İnce and Oğan voters mostly tend to vote in favor of Kılıçdaroğlu.
  •  The third is the participation of domestic voters especially domestic voters in the earthquake zone and participation and vote share of overseas voters.

Respectfully submitted for your information.

KONDA Research and Consultancy INC.