Although our main purpose and production are based on social data, the KONDA brand is still largely associated with election research and predictions. Therefore, our evaluation as a company is based on how the election research we announce reflects the results of the ballot box.
We published the results of the field research we conducted exactly one week before the general elections held on May 14, 2023, 3 days before the election, as before every election. May 14 revealed a deviation from KONDA's measurement beyond the margin of error.
Many different claims have emerged with the assumption that measurements made through surveys have the power to influence public opinion or political actors. We hope that anyone who believes in the power of science and reputation, like us, does not listen to these claims. We expect institutions that claim to do similar work to us to abandon fallacies based on rumours, journalists to distrust these rumors and this issue to be discussed on a methodological basis.
We described the fact that the research data did not match the ballot box results as a situation that needed to be examined, and we turned it into a biopsy study, a summary of the results of which you can read in this report. In this study, we questioned everything from method selection to sample design, from our field methods to our weighting methods.
Eren Pultar, who worked at Konda until 2021 and has knowledge of all our processes, even from the outside, coordinated this process. At this point, I would like to thank her for putting forward this multi-faceted, complex and valuable work for us. This study, which was carried out with the support of different experts, including especially Prof. Dr. Nebi Sümer, has a much broader output than the summary you will read below, and we will share these with other experts and continue to improve ourselves.
As a result of the study, we would also like to find a very specific reason that caused us to make a different measurement than the election result. However, the more complex the organism we call society is, the more complex the methods and processes used to measure it are. Every step, every element affects each other. Therefore, rather than a defined error, we encounter approaches to be improved. The biopsy study is not an outcome, but rather a new beginning for KONDA's sustainable social measurement efforts.
As a result of the biopsy process, there is only one clear finding for us: In the face of the complexity of measuring society, it is necessary to continue to strive and improve our work without compromising science and truth...
We present our Biopsy Report for your review, hoping that it will benefit everyone who wants to understand society through knowledge, science and measurement.
Best Regards,
Aydin Erdem
KONDA Research
General manager